Forex Trading - Profiting From Rising and Falling Exchange Rates

The easiest way to demonstrate the ability to profit from Forex trading as the exchange rate rises and falls is to look at some examples. Let's start by looking at how you might profit when exchange rates rise.

Let's assume that you believe that the UK Pound is going to rise against the US Dollar and that you can buy GBP/USD at 1.8730. We'll also assume that you are trading a standard InterBank lot of 100,000 so that 100,000 UK Pounds will cost 187,300 US Dollars.

To open a trade you start by borrowing 187,300 US Dollars, which you will have to repay when you close out your position.

[Note: We will not discuss the idea of borrowing to fund your Forex trading at this point but will simply note that the majority of trading is done using borrowed funds making use of leverage.]

Assuming that you are correct and that the UK Pound rises against the US Dollar and that the price moves 100 pips to a rate of 1.8830, the 100,000 UK Pounds which you purchased are now worth 188,300 US Dollars and you can close out your position and repay the original borrowing, leaving you with a profit of 1,000 US Dollars.

In real life of course it is not quite as simple as this because there will be transaction costs to pay. However, this does demonstrate the principle of profiting when exchange rate rise.

Now let's turn our attention to profiting when the exchange rate falls.

Assume this time that you believe that the UK Pound will fall against the US Dollar from its present rate of GBP/USD = 1.8730. In simple terms, you believe that the UK Pound is going to buy fewer US Dollars.

This time you will need to place a sell order for 100,000 UK Pounds at a cost of 187,300 US Dollars. In other words, you borrow 100,000 UK Pounds and sell them for 187,300 US Dollars.

Assuming once more that you are right and that the rate falls by 100 pips to GBP/USD = 1.8630, you can now close your position by buying back and repaying the 100,000 UK Pounds which you originally sold. In this case this will now cost you 186,300 US Dollars and you will once more make a profit of 1,000 US Dollars.

Again we have ignored any transaction costs to simply demonstrate the principle of profiting from a fall in exchange rates.

Calculating Pip Values

Perhaps the first question we need to ask is what does pip mean in forex trading? A pip is the smallest movement that is possible in the price of one currency against another and it is vital to be able to calculate pip values quickly and easily as it is the movement in prices which results in your profit or loss when trading.

A pip is normally, but not always, 0.0001 or 0.01%. In other words, if a currency moves from a price of 1.7650 to 1.7655 it is said to move 5 pips.

The easiest way to understand how to calculate pip values is to start by considering currency pairs which involve the US Dollar and we start by considering the situation when the US Dollar is the quote currency as in the case of JPY/USD, GBP/USD or CHF/USD.

Here calculating a pip value is very easy as a pip will always have a value of $10. So, if while trading JPY/USD the market moves in your favor by 10 pips you will make a profit of $100. Let's see how this works.

Consider a quote of GBP/USD is 1.9730. This means that 1 UK Pound is worth 1.9730 US Dollars. A standard InterBank lot size is 100,000 and which means that 100,000 UK Pounds are worth 197,300 US Dollars. If the market moves 1 pip so that GBP/USD is 1.9731 then 100,000 UK Pounds will now be worth 197,310 US Dollars - a rise of $10.

Now let's turn our attention to what happens when the US Dollar is the base currency and consider a quote of USD/GBP = 0.6439. Here 1 US Dollar is worth 0.6439 UK Pounds and 100,000 US Dollars are worth 64,390 UK Pounds.

If the price moves up 1 pip then USD/GBP = 0.6440 and 1 US Dollar is worth 0.6440 UK Pounds and 100,000 US Dollars is worth 64,400 UK Pounds.

In this case a movement of 1 pip represents a value of 10 UK Pounds which, in US Dollars, gives a pip value of 15.53 US Dollars (10 ÷ 0.6440).

For a standard trading lot with the US Dollar as the quote or counter currency a pip has a value of $10 but, when the US Dollar is the base currency, the pip value will vary with the market price.

Main Drawbacks of Forex Traders

Why is it that very few traders succeed in the Forex trading environment while the grand majority of traders fail to achieve success? There is no hard answer to this question, there are a few things that will put you one step ahead and will definitely put the odds in your favor. The main purpose of this article is to guide you through some important aspects of Forex trading. But in a different way, instead of telling you what to do or the best way to do it, it will tell you what to avoid. Sometimes it is better to identify the main drawbacks on a discipline and then isolate them so we have the best results at a certain level of development. The Holy Grail Many traders spend years and years trying to find the Holy Grail of trading. That magic indicator or set of indicators, only known by a few traders, that will make them rich in a short period of time. Fact: Well, there is no magic indicator, nor a set of indicators that will make anyone rich in a short period of time. The main reason of this is because market changes, every single moment is unique. Every Forex trading system will fail from time to time. Our work here is to find a Forex trading system that fits our personality as traders, otherwise the trader will find it hard to follow it. Looking for Easy Money Unfortunately most traders are attracted to the Forex market for this reason. Mainly because of the publicity showing or rather trying to show how easy is to trade and make money in the Forex market. Fact: Yes, it is very easy to trade, anyone can do it. It is as hard as one click. But the second part of it isn't that easy. Making money or achieving consistent profitable results is hard. It requires lots of education, patience, discipline, commitment, and this list could go to infinite. In a few words, it is possible to have consistent profitable results, but definitely it is not easy.

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Looking for Excitement Some other traders are attracted to the Forex market or any other financial market because they think it is exciting to be a trader. Fact: Yes, it is very exciting to trade the Forex market. But if this is the main reason you are still trading the Forex market, sooner or later you will discover the most expensive adventure you have ever known. Do some thinking on it. Not Using Money Management Most traders forget about this important aspect of trading. They think they shouldn't be using money management until they achieve consistent profitable results. They totally forget about the risk side of trading. Fact: Money management allows your profits to increase geometrically, but also limits your risk on every single trade. Money management tells you how much to risk on each trade. Using money management is a must if you want to achieve your trading goals. By using money management you make sure you are going to be able to trade tomorrow, the next week, month and the following years. Not Being Psychology Tuned This is one of the most underestimated subjects when it comes to trading. One of the main principles of financial markets is that the price of each instrument is based on the perception of each individual participant “the crowd.” In other words the price of each instrument is determined by the fear, greed, ego and hope of all traders. Fact: Being aware of all psychological issues that affect the decisions made by traders will definitely put the odds in your favor. Lack of Education Education is the base of knowledge on every discipline. As lawyers and doctors require several years of college until they get their degree, Forex traders also require long years of study. It is better to have someone experienced to guide you through your trading, since some information could take you in the wrong path. Fact: The market teaches us invaluable lessons on every single trade made. The process of education for a Forex trader could take for ever. That's right, we never stop learning. We should be humble about the markets and our knowledge; otherwise the market will prove us wrong. These are some of the most important barriers every trader faces when trying to trade successfully. Trading successfully the Forex markets is no easy task, it requires a lot of hard work to do it right, but with the right education, you will put yourself closer to your trading goals.

Pivot Points in Forex: Mapping Your Time Frame

It is useful to have a map and be able to see where the price is relative to previous market action. This way we can see how is the sentiment of traders and investors at any given moment, it also gives us a general idea of where the market is heading during the day. This information can help us decide which way to trade.

Pivot points, a technique developed by floor traders, help us see where the price is relative to previous market action.

As a definition, a pivot point is a turning point or condition. The same applies to the Forex market, the pivot point is a level in which the sentiment of the market changes from "bull" to "bear" or vice versa. If the market breaks this level up, then the sentiment is said to be a bull market and it is likely to continue its way up, on the other hand, if the market breaks this level down, then the sentiment is bear, and it is expected to continue its way down. Also at this level, the market is expected to have some kind of support/resistance, and if price can't break the pivot point, a possible bounce from it is plausible.

Pivot points work best on highly liquid markets, like the spot currency market, but they can also be used in other markets as well.

Forex Pivot Points

In a few words, pivot point is a level in which the sentiment of traders and investors changes from bull to bear or vice versa.

Why PP work?

They work simply because many individual traders and investors use and trust them, as well as bank and institutional traders. It is known to every trader that the pivot point is an important measure of strength and weakness of any market.

Calculating pivot points

There are several ways to arrive to the Pivot point. The method we found to have the most accurate results is calculated by taking the average of the high, low and close of a previous period (or session).

Pivot point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3

Take for instance the following EUR/USD information from the previous session:

Open: 1.2386

High: 1.2474

Low: 1.2376

Close: 1.2458

The PP would be,

PP = (1.2474 + 1.2376 + 1.2458) / 3 = 1.2439

What does this number tell us?

It simply tells us that if the market is trading above 1.2439, Bulls are winning the battle pushing the prices higher. And if the market is trading below this 1.2439 the bears are winning the battle pulling prices lower. On both cases this condition is likely to sustain until the next session.

Since the Forex market is a 24hr market (no close or open from day to day) there is a eternal battle on deciding at white time we should take the open, close, high and low from each session. From our point of view, the times that produce more accurate predictions is taking the open at 00:00 GMT and the close at 23:59 GMT .

Besides the calculation of the PP, there are other support and resistance levels that are calculated taking the PP as a reference.

Support 1 (S1) = (PP * 2) - H

Resistance 1 (R1) = (PP * 2) - L

Support 2 (S2) = PP - (R1 - S1)

Resistance 2 (R2) = PP + (R1 - S1)

Where, H is the High of the previous period and L is the low of the previous period

Continuing with the example above, PP = 1.2439

S1 = (1.2439 * 2) - 1.2474 = 1.2404

R1 = (1.2439 * 2) - 1.2376 = 1.2502

R2 = 1.2439 + (1.2636 - 1.2537) = 1.2537

S2 = 1.2439 - (1.2636 - 1.2537) = 1.2537

These levels are supposed to mark support and resistance levels for the current session.

On the example above, the PP was calculated using information of the previous session (previous day.) This way we could see possible intraday resistance and support levels. But it can also be calculated using the previous weekly or monthly data to determine such levels. By doing so we are able to see the sentiment over longer periods of time. Also we can see possible levels that might offer support and resistance throughout the week or month. Calculating the Pivot point in a weekly or monthly basis is mostly used by long term traders, but it can also be used by short time traders, it gives us a good idea about the longer term trend.

S1, S2, R1 AND R2...? An Objective Alternative

As already stated, the pivot point zone is a well-known technique and it works simply because many traders and investors use and trust it. But what about the other support and resistance zones (S1, S2, R1 and R2,) to forecast a support or resistance level with some mathematical formula is somehow subjective. It is hard to rely on them blindly just because the formula popped out that level. For this reason, we have created an alternative way to map our time frame, simpler but more objective and effective.

We calculate the pivot point as showed before. But our support and resistance levels are drawn in a different way. We take the previous session high and low, and draw those levels on today's chart. The same is done with the session before the previous session. So, we will have our PP and four more important levels drawn in our chart.

LOPS1, low of the previous session.

HOPS1, high of the previous session.

LOPS2, low of the session before the previous session.

HOPS2, high of the session before the previous session.

PP, pivot point.

These levels will tell us the strength of the market at any given moment. If the market is trading above the PP, then the market is considered in a possible uptrend. If the market is trading above HOPS1 or HOPS2, then the market is in an uptrend, and we only take long positions. If the market is trading below the PP then the market is considered in a possible downtrend. If the market is trading below LOPS1 or LOPS2, then the market is in a downtrend, and we should only consider short trades.

The psychology behind this approach is simple. We know that for some reason the market stopped there from going higher/lower the previous session, or the session before that. We don't know the reason, and we don't need to know it. We only know the fact: the market reversed at that level. We also know that traders and investors have memories, they do remember that the price stopped there before, and the odds are that the market reverses from there again (maybe because the same reason, and maybe not) or at least find some support or resistance at these levels.

What is important about his approach is that support and resistance levels are measured objectively; they aren't just a level derived from a mathematical formula, the price reversed there before so these levels have a higher probability of being effective.

Our mapping method works on both market conditions, when trending and on sideways conditions. In a trending market, it helps us determine the strength of the trend and trade off important levels. On sideways markets it shows us possible reversal levels.

How we use our mapping method?

We use the mapping method in three different ways: as a trend identification (measure of the strength of the trend), a trading system using important levels with price behavior as a trading signal and to set the risk reward ratio of any given trade based on where the is the market relative to the previous session.

Trading Psychology: Mistakes in a Trading Environment

When it comes to trading, one of the most neglected subjects are those dealing with trading psychology. Most traders spend days, months and even years trying to find the right system. But having a system is just part of the game. Don't get us wrong, it is very important to have a system that perfectly suits the trader, but it is as important as having a money management plan, or to understand all psychology barriers that may affect the trader decisions and other issues. In order to succeed in this business, there must be equilibrium between all important aspects of trading.

In the trading environment, when you lose a trade, what is the first idea that pops up in your mind? It would probably be, "There must be something wrong with my system", or "I knew it, I shouldn't have taken this trade" (even when your system signaled it). But sometimes we need to dig a little deeper in order to see the nature of our mistake, and then work on it accordingly.

When it comes to trading the Forex market as well as other markets, only 5% of traders achieve the ultimate goal: to be consistent in profits. What is interesting though is that there is just a tiny difference between this 5% of traders and the rest of them. The top 5% grow from mistakes; mistakes are a learning experience, they learn an invaluable lesson on every single mistake made. Deep in their minds, a mistake is one more chance to try it harder and do it better the next time, because they know they might not get a chance the next time. And at the end, this tiny difference becomes THE big difference.

Mistakes in the trading environment

Most of us relate a trading mistake to the outcome (in terms of money) of any given trade. The truth is, a mistake has nothing to do with it, mistakes are made when certain guidelines are not followed. When the rules you trade by are violated. Take for instance the following scenarios:

First scenario: The system signals a trade.

1. Signal taken and trade turns out to be a profitable trade.

Outcome of the trade : Positive, made money.

Experience gained: Its good to follow the system, if I do this consistently the odds will turn in my favor. Confidence is gained in both the trader and the system.

Mistake made: None.

1. Signal taken and trade turns out to be a loosing trade.

Outcome of the trade: Negative, lost money.

Experience gained: It is impossible to win every single trade, a loosing trade is just part of the business; our raw material, we know we can't get them all right. Even with this lost trade, the trader is proud about himself for following the system. Confidence in the trader is gained.

Mistake made : None.

1. Signal not taken and trade turns out to be a profitable trade.

Outcome of the trade: Neutral.

Experience gained: Frustration, the trader always seems to get in trades that turned out to be loosing trades and let the profitable trades go away. Confidence is lost in the trader self.

Mistake made: Not taking a trade when the system signaled it.

1. Signal not taken and trade turns out to be a loosing trade.

Outcome of the trade: Neutral.

Experience gained: The trader will start to think "hey, I'm better than my system". Even if the trader doesn't think on it consciously, the trader will rationalize on every signal given by the system because deep in his or her mind, his or her "feeling" is more intelligent than the system itself. From this point on, the trader will try to outguess the system. This mistake has catastrophic effects on our confidence to the system. The confidence on the trader turns into overconfidence.

Mistake made: Not taking a trade when system signaled it

Second Scenario: System does not signal a trade.

1. No trade is taken

Outcome of the trade: Neutral

Experience gained: Good discipline, we only need to take trades when the odds are in our favor, just when the system signals it. Confidence gained in both the trader self and the system.

Mistake made: None

1. A trade is taken, turns out to be a profitable trade.

Outcome of the trade: Positive, made money.

Experience gained: This mistake has the most catastrophic effects in the trader self, the system and most importantly in the trader's trading career. You will start to think you need no system, you know better from them all. From this point on, you will start to trade based on what you think. Confidence in the system is totally lost. Confidence in the trader self turns into overconfidence.

Mistake made: Take a trade when there was no signal from the system.

1. A trade is taken, turned out to be a loosing trade.

Outcome of the trade: negative, lost money.

Experience gained: The trader will rethink his strategy. The next time, the trader will think it twice before getting in a trade when the system does not signal it. The trader will go "Ok, it is better to get in the market when my system signals it, only those trade have a higher probability of success". Confidence is gained in the system.

Mistake made: Take a trade when there was no signal from the system

As you can see, there is absolutely no correlation between the outcome of the trade and a mistake. The most catastrophic mistake even has a positive trade outcome, made money, but this could be the beginning of the end of the trader's career. As we have already stated, mistakes must only be related to the violation of rules a trader trades by.

All these mistakes were directly related to the signals given by a system, but the same is applied when getting out of a trade. There are also mistakes related to following a trading plan. For example, risking more money on a given trade than the amount the trader should have risked and many more.

Most mistakes can be avoided by first having a trading plan. A trading plan includes the system : the criteria we use to get in and out the market, the money management plan : how much we will risk on any given trade, and many other points. Secondly, and most important, we need to have the discipline to follow strictly our plan. We created our plan when no trade was placed on, thus no psychology barriers were up front. So, the only thing we are certain about is that if we follow our plan, the decision taken is on our best interests, and in the long run, these decisions will help us have better results. We don't have to worry about isolated events, or trades that could had give us better results at first, but then they could have catastrophic results in our trading career.

How to deal with mistakes

There are many possible ways to properly manage mistakes. We will suggest the one that works better for us.

Step one: Belief change.

Every mistake is a learning experience. They all have something valuable to offer. Try to counteract the natural tendency of feeling frustrated and approach mistakes in a positive manner. Instead of yelling to everyone around and feeling disappointed, say to yourself "ok, I did something wrong, what happened? What is it?

Step two: Identify the mistake made.

Define the mistake, find out what caused the mistake, and try as hard as you can to effectively see the nature of that mistake. Finding the mistake nature will prevent you from making the same mistake again. More than often you will find the answer where you less expected. Take for instance a trader that doesn't follow the system. The reason behind this could be that the trader is afraid of loosing. But then, why is he or she afraid? It could be that the trader is using a system that does not fit him or her, and finds difficult to follow every signal. In this case, as you can see, the nature of the mistake is not in the surface. You need to try as hard as you can to find the real reason of the given mistake.

Step three: Measure the consequences of the mistake.

List the consequences of making that particular mistake, both good and bad. Good consequences are those that make us better traders after dealing with the mistake. Think on all possible reasons you can learn from what happened. For the same example above, what are the consequences of making that mistake? Well, if you don't follow the system, you will gradually loose confidence in it, and this at the end will put you into trades you don't really want to be, and out of trades you should be in.

Step four: Take action.

Taking proper action is the last and most important step. In order to learn, you need to change your behavior. Make sure that whatever you do, you become "this-mistake-proof". By taking action we turn every single mistake into a small part of success in our trading career. Continuing with the same example, redefining the system would be the trader's final step. The trader would put a system that perfectly fits him or her, so the trader doesn't find any trouble following it in future signals.

Understanding the fact that the outcome of any trade has nothing to do with a mistake will open your mind to other possibilities, where you will be able to understand the nature of every mistake made. This at the same time will open the doors for your trading career as you work and take proper action on every mistake made.

The process of success is slow, and plenty of times it is attributed to repeated mistakes made and the constant struggle to get past these mistakes, working on them accordingly. How we deal with them will shape our future as a trader, and most importantly as a person.

What you see is not what you get?

When your spot trade becomes a two-day contract.

In forex trading any delay is more than an inconvenience: your trading strategy is interrupted, you make fewer trades, costs go up, there's unnecessary risk. It's a waste of your time.
With most market makers today, every trade you make is a forward contract--not a spot trade. What does that mean?

Say you've made a successful intra-day trade and you'd like to close out your position and collect the proceeds. Don't hold your breath... Absent the immediate settlement of a real spot trade, you'll wait two business days until you get your money. (And in the meantime, your funds are a hidden asset for the institution processing your trade.)
What if you'd like to keep your position open? Most market makers require you to do a rollover swap: close out and re-open your position simultaneously, with a new settlement date one day further in the future. (Whom does the swap benefit? Who do you think pays for this antiquated housekeeping detail? And why is it even necessary?)
Two-day settlement restricts your flow of capital, penalizes traders who depend on equity to fund their next trade (which might be in an hour... or in five minutes), and gives unfair advantage to the market maker who provides no value in return. It's just old-fashioned processing.

In a world of increasingly short-term trading (90% of forex trading is intra-day), the system is out of sync with practical reality.
Think it's not a serious problem? Then why have the big banks invested years of time and money making this particular pill a little easier to swallow? (By enabling "netting" through a prime broker or daily settlement through the CLS network.)
As a counter party to every trade, the market maker is responsible for maintaining transaction flow. Two-day settlement invites myriad opportunities for disruption:
through defaults or delays in the transaction stream;
through the need to reconcile inconsistencies; and, consequently
having to make up for time lost in restoring the flow.