There are basically two types of Forex trading systems, mechanical and discretionary systems. The trading signals that come out of mechanical systems are mainly based off technical analysis applied in a systematic way. On the other hand, discretionary systems use experience, intuition or judgment on entries and exits. But which one produces better results? Or more importantly, which one fits better your trading style? We will first analyze the pros and cons about each system approach.
Mechanical systems
AdvantagesThis kind of trading system can be automated and backtested efficiently. It has very rigid rules. Mechanical traders are less susceptible to emotions than discretionary traders.
DisadvantagesMost traders backtest Forex trading systems incorrectly. In order to produce accurate results you need tick data. The Forex market is always changing. The Forex market (and all markets) has a random component. The market conditions may look similar, but they are never the same. A trading system that worked successfully the past year doesn’t necessary mean it will work this year.
Discretionary systems
AdvantagesDiscretionary systems are easily adaptable to new market conditions. Trading decisions are based on experience. Traders learn to see which trading signals have higher probability of success.
Disadvantages They cannot be backtested or automated, since there is always a thought decision to be made. It takes time to develop the experience required to trade successfully and track trades in a discretionary way. At early stages this can be dangerous.
Now, which approach is better for Forex traders? The one that fits better your personality. For instance, if you are a trader that finds it hard to follow your trading signals, then you are better off using a mechanical system, where your judgment won’t play an important role in your system. You only take the trades that your system signals.
If the psychological barriers that affect every trader (fear, greed, anger, etc.) puts you in unwanted scenarios, you are also better off trading mechanical systems, because you only need to follow what your system is telling you, go short, go long, close a trade. No other decision has to be made.
On the other hand, if you are a disciplined trader, then you are better off using a discretionary system, because discretionary systems adapt to the market conditions and you are able to change your trading conditions as the market changes. For instance, you have a target of 60 pips on a long trade. But the market suddenly starts trending up pretty strongly, then you could move your target to say 100 pips.
Does it mean that trading a discretionary system has no rules? This is absolutely incorrect. Trading discretionary systems means that once a trader finds his/her setup, the trader then decides what to do. But every trader still needs certain rules that need to be followed, such as the size of the position, conditions that have to be met before thinking to get in the market, and so on.
Whether you choose to be a discretionary or a mechanical trader there are some important points you should take in consideration:
You need to make sure the Forex trading system you are using totally fits your personality. Otherwise you will find yourself outguessing your system. You also need to have some rules and most importantly have the discipline to follow them. Take your time to build the perfect system for you. It’s not easy and requires time and hard work, but at the end, if done correctly, it will give you consistent profitable results. Before going live, try it on a demo account or even on a small account (I will go for the second option, since psychological barriers will be present.)
By: Raul Lopez
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Sunday, December 30, 2007
Forex Software - Choosing the Best
When it comes to forex trading the forex software you choose is essential. There are so many forex trading companies all competing for your business that choosing the right forex software can be quite a difficult task. Most of the forex software products available offers live online forex trading platforms but what other components are vital when it comes to your forex software.
Key Elements For Your Forex Software
Before purchasing any forex software there are a few essential items that should be included. The most important is security and your online forex trading software should include a 128 bit SSL encryption which will prevent hackers from accessing any of your personal details and information such as your account balance, transaction history, etc.
Providing the best security for your forex trading will include a company that provides 24 hour technical server support for your forex software, 24 hour maintenance should anything go wrong, daily backups of all information, and a security system that has been designed to prevent any unauthorized access. Along with these security protocols there are also some forex trading companies that use smart cards and fingerprint scanners to ensure that only their employees can have access to their servers.
Another important factor when it comes to choosing your forex software is to check what the company’s downtime is like. When it comes to trading forex and particularly your online forex trading you need to ensure that the forex software you choose is reliable and available 24 hours a day. The forex software you choose for your forex trading should also have technical support available at all times should your session be cut short.
Ensuring that all the above features are listed in the forex software you choose will help to ensure your forex trading success.
Key Elements For Your Forex Software
Before purchasing any forex software there are a few essential items that should be included. The most important is security and your online forex trading software should include a 128 bit SSL encryption which will prevent hackers from accessing any of your personal details and information such as your account balance, transaction history, etc.
Providing the best security for your forex trading will include a company that provides 24 hour technical server support for your forex software, 24 hour maintenance should anything go wrong, daily backups of all information, and a security system that has been designed to prevent any unauthorized access. Along with these security protocols there are also some forex trading companies that use smart cards and fingerprint scanners to ensure that only their employees can have access to their servers.
Another important factor when it comes to choosing your forex software is to check what the company’s downtime is like. When it comes to trading forex and particularly your online forex trading you need to ensure that the forex software you choose is reliable and available 24 hours a day. The forex software you choose for your forex trading should also have technical support available at all times should your session be cut short.
Ensuring that all the above features are listed in the forex software you choose will help to ensure your forex trading success.
Forex Fundamental Analysis
The two primary approaches of analyzing Forex markets are technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis comprises the examination of economic indicators, asset markets and political considerations when evaluating a nation’s currency in terms of another. The focus of fundamental analysis lies on the economic, social and political forces that drive supply and demand. There is no single set of beliefs that guide forex fundamental analysis, yet most fundamental analysts look at various macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth rates, interest rates, inflation, and unemployment.
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Here we look at some of the major Forex fundamental factors that play a role in the movement of a currency:
Economic Indicators
Economic indicators are reports released by the government or a private organization that detail a country’s economic performance. These economic indicators can be released on a weekly basis, but the more common report is monthly. Indicators are based around a number of economical situations, of which the two primary factors are that of International trade and Interest. Subsidiary factors also include Consumer Price Index (CPI), Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Durable goods orders, retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI).
Currency’s Interest Rates
One of the major indicator factors, Interest rates, are a key economic function of any nation. Generally, when a country raises its interest rates, the country’s currency will strengthen in relation to other currencies as assets are shifted to gain a higher return. Interest rates hikes, however, are usually not good news for stock markets. This is due to the fact that many investors will withdraw money from a country’s stock market when there is a hike of interest rates.
International Trade
The trade balance portrays the net difference (over a period of time) between the imports and exports of a nation. A trade deficit can be an economic disaster for a government and a currency. A deficit may appear when a country is importing more than it is exporting, meaning that more money is leaving and less is coming in. In some ways, however, a trade deficit in and of itself is not necessarily a bad thing. A deficit is only negative if the deficit is greater than market expectations and therefore will trigger a negative price movement.
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Here we look at some of the major Forex fundamental factors that play a role in the movement of a currency:
Economic Indicators
Economic indicators are reports released by the government or a private organization that detail a country’s economic performance. These economic indicators can be released on a weekly basis, but the more common report is monthly. Indicators are based around a number of economical situations, of which the two primary factors are that of International trade and Interest. Subsidiary factors also include Consumer Price Index (CPI), Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Durable goods orders, retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI).
Currency’s Interest Rates
One of the major indicator factors, Interest rates, are a key economic function of any nation. Generally, when a country raises its interest rates, the country’s currency will strengthen in relation to other currencies as assets are shifted to gain a higher return. Interest rates hikes, however, are usually not good news for stock markets. This is due to the fact that many investors will withdraw money from a country’s stock market when there is a hike of interest rates.
International Trade
The trade balance portrays the net difference (over a period of time) between the imports and exports of a nation. A trade deficit can be an economic disaster for a government and a currency. A deficit may appear when a country is importing more than it is exporting, meaning that more money is leaving and less is coming in. In some ways, however, a trade deficit in and of itself is not necessarily a bad thing. A deficit is only negative if the deficit is greater than market expectations and therefore will trigger a negative price movement.
Fibonacci Trading Techniques
Introduction to Fibonacci trading techniques.
First, a few words about Fibonacci himself…
Leonardo Pisano (nickname Fibonacci) was a mathematician, born in 1170, in Pisa (now Italy). His father was Guilielmo, of the Bonacci family. His father was a diplomat, as a result Fibonacci was educated in North Africa, where he learned "accounting" and "mathematics".
Fibonacci also contributed to the science of numbers, and introduced the "Fibonacci sequence"
The Fibonacci sequence is the sequence 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, introduced in his work "Liber abaci" in a problem involving the growth of a population of rabbits.
Aside from this sequence of number where every next number is the sum of the proceeding two, 0, 1 (0+1), 2 (1+1), 3 (2+1), 5 (3+2), 8 (5+3), 13 (8+5), etc.
There are the "Fibonacci ratios".. By comparing the relationship between each number, and each alternate number, and even each number to the one four places to the right, we arrive at some fairly consistent ratios.. The important ones are .236, 50, .382, .618, .764, 1.382, 1.618, 2.618, 4.236, and for good measure we include 1.00 ..
It turns out that the ratios are mathematical principles prevalent in nature around us, and is also in man-made objects. There are many interesting, entertaining, and poetic observations about Fibonacci numbers and ratios in the universe (see the reference section below). Fibonacci numbers appear in ancient buildings, in plants, planets, molecules, the dimensions of human bodies, and of course snails… But of what use is all that to the lowly trader?
What really interests you, the application of Fibonacci techniques in the trading environment..
Traders usually study charts! Fibonacci ratios may be applied to the Price scale, and also to the time scale of charts. I study the price scale. My focus here will be on the price scale for now, perhaps in the future I’ll add some time-scale studies.
Prices never move in a straight line. Look at any chart, you will see many wiggles, as price advances and retraces.. Stocks, Futures, Forex, all instruments which are liquid, will often retrace in Fibonacci proportions, and advance in Fibonacci proportions. Not always, and not precisely to the penny. But very often, and reasonably close! This happens often enough that profitable trades can result. I will show you some examples below.
I used Fibonacci ratios with a few simple indicators to help determine probable price turning points, optimum entry, exit and stop-loss levels. My complete techniques are available in on-line video seminars, in-person seminars, and via my real-time on-line chat facility.
The application of Fibonacci to trading can be very complex, and take much time and experience to perfect. Many traders enjoy making the process as difficult and as complex as they can tolerate.. I do the opposite, I try to simplify, try to bring clarity.
First, a few words about Fibonacci himself…
Leonardo Pisano (nickname Fibonacci) was a mathematician, born in 1170, in Pisa (now Italy). His father was Guilielmo, of the Bonacci family. His father was a diplomat, as a result Fibonacci was educated in North Africa, where he learned "accounting" and "mathematics".
Fibonacci also contributed to the science of numbers, and introduced the "Fibonacci sequence"
The Fibonacci sequence is the sequence 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, introduced in his work "Liber abaci" in a problem involving the growth of a population of rabbits.
Aside from this sequence of number where every next number is the sum of the proceeding two, 0, 1 (0+1), 2 (1+1), 3 (2+1), 5 (3+2), 8 (5+3), 13 (8+5), etc.
There are the "Fibonacci ratios".. By comparing the relationship between each number, and each alternate number, and even each number to the one four places to the right, we arrive at some fairly consistent ratios.. The important ones are .236, 50, .382, .618, .764, 1.382, 1.618, 2.618, 4.236, and for good measure we include 1.00 ..
It turns out that the ratios are mathematical principles prevalent in nature around us, and is also in man-made objects. There are many interesting, entertaining, and poetic observations about Fibonacci numbers and ratios in the universe (see the reference section below). Fibonacci numbers appear in ancient buildings, in plants, planets, molecules, the dimensions of human bodies, and of course snails… But of what use is all that to the lowly trader?
What really interests you, the application of Fibonacci techniques in the trading environment..
Traders usually study charts! Fibonacci ratios may be applied to the Price scale, and also to the time scale of charts. I study the price scale. My focus here will be on the price scale for now, perhaps in the future I’ll add some time-scale studies.
Prices never move in a straight line. Look at any chart, you will see many wiggles, as price advances and retraces.. Stocks, Futures, Forex, all instruments which are liquid, will often retrace in Fibonacci proportions, and advance in Fibonacci proportions. Not always, and not precisely to the penny. But very often, and reasonably close! This happens often enough that profitable trades can result. I will show you some examples below.
I used Fibonacci ratios with a few simple indicators to help determine probable price turning points, optimum entry, exit and stop-loss levels. My complete techniques are available in on-line video seminars, in-person seminars, and via my real-time on-line chat facility.
The application of Fibonacci to trading can be very complex, and take much time and experience to perfect. Many traders enjoy making the process as difficult and as complex as they can tolerate.. I do the opposite, I try to simplify, try to bring clarity.
What is The Law of Charts?
The Law of Charts was discovered by Master Trader Joe Ross. As he likes to say, "It was there all along. It just happened to fall on my head much as the law of gravity was discovered when an apple fell on Isaac Newton’s head."
The Law of Charts defines four basic formations known as 1-2-3 lows and highs, Ross hooks, trading ranges, and ledges. These occur in all time frames because the depict human action and reaction vis-à-vis price movement.
What makes these formations unique is that they can be specifically defined. The ability to formulate a more precise definition sets these formations apart from such vague generalities as "head and shoulders," "coils," "flags," "pennants," "megaphones," and other such supposed price patterns that are frequently attached as labels to the action of prices.
A 1-2-3 high or low comes at the end of a trend or swing. It forms as the result of a change in the direction of prices. The 1-2-3 low forms as the result of buying pressure overcoming that of selling pressure. The 1-2-3 high forms as the result of selling pressure overcoming buying pressure.
A Ross hook™ always forms as the result of profit taking in an trend or swing.
A ledge forms as a result of profit taking, uncertainty about future price direction, or both. You might consider it as a pause in the overall movement of prices in a single direction.
A ledge is the smallest of a number of consolidation formations: it never consists of more than 10 or less than 4 price bars. It is denoted by containing two matching or nearly matching highs and two matching or nearly matching lows.
A consolidation consisting of eleven to 20 price bars is called a congestion, and a consolidation consisting of 21 or more price bars.
As simple as these definitions are, the have been found to constitute a "law." Any data that contains both a high and a low, will form these patterns; even data that has nothing to do with markets and trading.
Learn more about The Law of Charts, it is a free resource on our website. Study it as much as you want. And while you are visiting take a look at the Traders Trick™ entry.
by Joe Ross
The Law of Charts defines four basic formations known as 1-2-3 lows and highs, Ross hooks, trading ranges, and ledges. These occur in all time frames because the depict human action and reaction vis-à-vis price movement.
What makes these formations unique is that they can be specifically defined. The ability to formulate a more precise definition sets these formations apart from such vague generalities as "head and shoulders," "coils," "flags," "pennants," "megaphones," and other such supposed price patterns that are frequently attached as labels to the action of prices.
A 1-2-3 high or low comes at the end of a trend or swing. It forms as the result of a change in the direction of prices. The 1-2-3 low forms as the result of buying pressure overcoming that of selling pressure. The 1-2-3 high forms as the result of selling pressure overcoming buying pressure.
A Ross hook™ always forms as the result of profit taking in an trend or swing.
A ledge forms as a result of profit taking, uncertainty about future price direction, or both. You might consider it as a pause in the overall movement of prices in a single direction.
A ledge is the smallest of a number of consolidation formations: it never consists of more than 10 or less than 4 price bars. It is denoted by containing two matching or nearly matching highs and two matching or nearly matching lows.
A consolidation consisting of eleven to 20 price bars is called a congestion, and a consolidation consisting of 21 or more price bars.
As simple as these definitions are, the have been found to constitute a "law." Any data that contains both a high and a low, will form these patterns; even data that has nothing to do with markets and trading.
Learn more about The Law of Charts, it is a free resource on our website. Study it as much as you want. And while you are visiting take a look at the Traders Trick™ entry.
by Joe Ross
How to choose a Forex Broker?
Forex brokers need to be associated with a large financial institution such as a bank in order to provide the funds necessary for margin trading. In the United States a broker should be registered as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as protection against fraud and abusive trade practices.
Before trading Forex you need to set up an account with a Forex broker. You may feel overwhelmed by the number of forex brokers who offer their services online. Deciding on a broker requires lots of research on your part.
There are several areas to examine before you sign on the dotted line with any broker. Here are some things that you need to look for in making your choice:
Safety of FundsIs the broker regulated?
Are client funds insured?
Order executionHow fast is the broker’s order execution?
Will they place you on manual execution?
Do they offer automatic execution?
How much can you trade before having to request a quote?
Do they offset all clients orders?
Do they trade against their clients?
SpreadIs it fixed or variable?
How tight is the spread?
Is it larger for mini accounts?
SlippageHow much slippage can be expected in normal and fast moving market conditions?
Margin requirementsWhat are the margin requirements and how are they calculated? Does the margin change with currency traded? Is it the same for mini accounts and standard accounts?
Forex Trading PlatformIs it reliable during fast moving markets and news announcements?How many different currency pairs can you trade? Do they offer an Application Programming Interface (API) for automated systems trading? What other features does it offer? (One click trading from the chart, trailing stops, mobile trading etc.)
Account SizeWhat is the minimum account balance? Can you trade mini accounts? Do you earn interest on the unused equity in your account? Can you adjust the standard lot size traded?
Before trading Forex you need to set up an account with a Forex broker. You may feel overwhelmed by the number of forex brokers who offer their services online. Deciding on a broker requires lots of research on your part.
There are several areas to examine before you sign on the dotted line with any broker. Here are some things that you need to look for in making your choice:
Safety of FundsIs the broker regulated?
Are client funds insured?
Order executionHow fast is the broker’s order execution?
Will they place you on manual execution?
Do they offer automatic execution?
How much can you trade before having to request a quote?
Do they offset all clients orders?
Do they trade against their clients?
SpreadIs it fixed or variable?
How tight is the spread?
Is it larger for mini accounts?
SlippageHow much slippage can be expected in normal and fast moving market conditions?
Margin requirementsWhat are the margin requirements and how are they calculated? Does the margin change with currency traded? Is it the same for mini accounts and standard accounts?
Forex Trading PlatformIs it reliable during fast moving markets and news announcements?How many different currency pairs can you trade? Do they offer an Application Programming Interface (API) for automated systems trading? What other features does it offer? (One click trading from the chart, trailing stops, mobile trading etc.)
Account SizeWhat is the minimum account balance? Can you trade mini accounts? Do you earn interest on the unused equity in your account? Can you adjust the standard lot size traded?
What is Forex ?
The Foreign Exchange market, also referred to as the "Forex" or "FX" market, is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily average turnover of approximately US$1.5 trillion. Foreign Exchange is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another. The world’s currencies are on a floating exchange rate and are always traded in pairs, for example Euro/Dollar or Dollar/Yen.
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